President Donald Trump seems to be heading to a complicated 2020. Apart from the impeachment inquiry moving forward (Defying Subpoenas Ends In Impeachment Vote) his strategy over the Middle East, one of the pillars of his campaign, might fall into pieces thanks to China. Here is why?
1 – HOW MUCH DID THE MIDDLE EAST CHANGED SINCE BAGHDADI’S DEATH?
The region is not very different. It remains unstable, full of conflicts, divided and with World Powers fighting for more and more land. The fact that an “unhealthy” al-Baghdadi was confirmed to be dead, is not changing the scenario. ISIS was already managing a transition to a new leadership that promises a different scale of war, one very similar to al-Qaeda. Regarding this last group, after rumors of Hamza Bin Laden taking over and his death … it was evident that the actual leaders of the terrorist organization are others and we will hear from them sooner than later.
In the end, Trump thought that this operation would help improve his image after the recent events related to Ukraine and Russia. But the truth is that al-Baghdadi was never Osama Bin-Laden. The truth is that the Middle East has been for months if not for more than a year, confronting a new stage that holds its leadership in Russia and … China.
2 – CHINA IS TAKING OVER IRAQ AND … SYRIA TOO?
During a very complicated month for the country amid political unrest, China appeared to do what the United States cannot (or doesn’t want to?) do. Iraqi Prime Minister, Abdul-Mahdi, confirmed that his country signed the Bel and Road Initiative (BRI) with China. This strategic move finished assembling a relationship between the Asian Giant and the world’s 5th biggest oil reserve. Until 2018, all the countries in the Middle East that have a commercial relationship with China received from Beijing almost $25 Billion in investments. This strategy from China will create debt from this nations and that will have to slowly end up giving more and more power to Xi Jinping’s hands. China is doing what the United States did before. Why the White House is not taking care of Western interests?
Here is an impressive description of data put together by Foreign Policy … What is China looking forward to?
3 – WHY CHINA IS TARGETING THE MIDDLE EAST?
China is entering a new stage. After growing very fast for the last 8 years, now it is slowing down with much more room to control. This means that now, Beijing will try to use its financial resources to effectively take over Western positions especially in countries or regions with important resources like oil (Middle East), water (Argentina), Coffee and Cocoa (Africa) … Most important? The control of gas resources as well as population “endorsement” from African and Asian leaders. China is heading to control the world and it looks like, for now, the US won’t be able to stop it.
Donald Trump might win in 2020 and still face one of the biggest problems for his legacy: Stopping China from taking over the world. This is not only about the market but managing the balance of power that for now, remains on the West. Will Trump react? What do you think?
