The Israeli Air Force, attacked an area of Lebanon that is controlled by Hezbollah and groups aligned with the Palestinian Authority’s most extreme groups. This brings more tension to the Arab-Israeli conflict and the intention of Trump in managing to bring both sides together fade fast. At the same time, Israel goes to elections next month in order to confirm Netanyahu’s position on the region or go for a new leader. Can this escalate into a full war with Iran?
WHAT HAPPENED?
Israel developed multiple strikes all over the Middle East during the last 10 days in an operation that surprised the US and Russia. This included targets of Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria. The action that became more relevant was the direct strike over the Beqaa Valley of Lebanon where force of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine might be working together with Hezbollah. The goal: Fund and organise a big attack towards Israeli civilians.
The IDF (Israel Defense Forces) confirmed that the two Lebanese casualties during the Drone Attack were Hassem Yussuf Zabib and Yasser Ahmed Tzahr, both apparently directly linked to Iran and Hezbollah’s militia.
Why is this happening now? Israel is going through a very complicated moment. With a lack of leadership in the opposition and a PM already questioned by most of the population, Israel will have to decide its future while facing a lot of pressure from the West Bank and Gaza. It is a possibility (small) that Israel and Iran will engage in a “Middle East Cold War” in Lebanon or Gaza … this year. Why both fronts? Hamas is fully committed to fight for the power of the AP and even though the country is going through a deep humanitarian crisis, the extremist group has the opportunity to fund its operation thanks to Tehran (Hamas And Israel Might Engage This Year Again). The group based in Gaza is already firing rockets to Southern Israel communities on a daily basis.
HOW THIS AFFECTS TRUMP?
Donald Trump and probably his main advisor now, Jared Kushner, delayed the so called “Peace Plan” for this region of the Middle East. After a serious of conflicts with AP’s envoys and a lot of confusion, Kushner himself decided to postpone the plan that was suppose to bring more calm to Israel, Gaza and the West Bank. But Israel confronting directly Iran … might help Trump in order to get more allies (apart from the UK) towards his challenge to Rouhani.
The tension between the United States and Iran is right now adding more fire to the Arab-Israeli conflict. Why? Iran finds comfort in using Hamas and Hezbollah to make Israel and Trump uncomfortable but at the same time, running a big risk; Trump and Netanyahu can both go “all in” and this would mean only one thing: The end of the actual status-quo of Jerusalem, the end of Rouhani and the Ayatollah, a possible new map for the AP and all of course … with a big battle in the middle. More suffering for the civilians and the soldiers committed to their forces.
What do you think Trump should do?
sraeli Air Force drones attacked a Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) position in Qousaya, located in the Beqaa Valley of Lebanon, close to the border with Syria on Sunday night, according to Lebanese media reports.
